November 4, 2012

Obama will win 332 Electoral Votes to Romney’s 206. Florida will be very very very close.

 

Democrats pick up a seat (including independent Angus King in Maine) in the Senate to increase their majority to 54 seats.

 

Democrats win 5-10 seats in the House.

 

Obama wins 26 States & DC:
Eastern Time Zone
FL less than 1 point — this state is the I’m most likely to be wrong about. But if it does go to Romney, it will be by less than 1 point. Still I predict Obama ekes out an EXTREMELY tight victory.
VA 0-2 points
OH 2-4 points
NH 2-5 points
MI more than 5 points (but not much more)
PA more than 5 points (but not much more)
DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME (including the Second Congressional District)

 

Central Time Zone
IA 2-5 points
WI 3-6 points
MN more than 5 points
IL

 

Mountain Time Zone
CO 0-2 points
NM more than 5 points

 

Pacific Time Zone
NV 3-6 points
CA, OR, WA

 

Hawaii Time Zone
HI

 

Romney wins the other 24 states, all by margins of more than 5 points, except NC where he ekes out a narrow victory of 1-3 points.