September 14, 2012

Obama will win 332 Electoral Votes to Romney’s 206. Florida will be very very very close.

 

Democrats pick up a seat (including independent Angus King in Maine) in the Senate to increase their majority to 54 seats.

 

Democrats win 5-10 seats in the House.

 

Obama wins 26 States & DC:
FL less than 1 point — this state is the I’m most likely to be wrong about. But if it does go to Romney, it will be by less than 1 point. Still I predict Obama ekes out an EXTREMELY tight victory.
VA 0-2 points

CO 0-2 points
OH 2-4 points

IA 2-5 points
NH 2-5 points

WI 3-6 points

NV 3-6 points
MI more than 5 points (but not much more)
PA more than 5 points (but not much more)

MN more than 5 points

NM more than 5 points
DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME (including the Second Congressional District), IL, CA, OR, WA, HI

 

Romney wins the other 24 states, all by margins of more than 5 points, except NC where he ekes out a narrow victory of 1-3 points.